"Diplomats say Israel set to continue overflights over Lebanon"
Nicholas Blanford. The Washington Report on Middle East Affairs. Washington: Oct 2003. Vol.22, Iss. 8; pg. 35

Diplomatic efforts to end Hezbollah's anti-aircraft (AA) fire and Israeli overflights are foundering due mainly to Israel's apparent determination to continue breaching Lebanese air space, despite a lowering of tension on the Lebanese side of the border since the Aug. 9 and 10 weekend's escalation.

Diplomats in Beirut are voicing concern that if the "provocative" overflights continue, Hezbollah may retaliate with more cross-border anti-aircraft fire, spurring a fresh escalation along the border.

Israel's staging of mass overflights on Aug. 13 has dampened hopes of an imminent end to the AA fire/overflights. Furthermore, the intensity of the overflights-in which at least 13 jets flew over most of the country, breaking the sound barrier over Baalbek and other towns-is fueling suspicion among diplomats that Israel is deliberately attempting to goad Hezbollah into a reaction.

Some analysts believe that Israel hopes to provoke Hezbollah in order to launch a sweeping military campaign against the party. There are certainly senior ranking Israeli army officers who would like to exact revenge on the battlefield for Hezbollah's success in forcing the Israeli army out of southern Lebanon three years ago.

But the Israeli government and military appreciate that such an option is likely to be costly, not least because of Hezbollah's suspected deployment of long-range rockets in the south. Israeli officials have recently admitted that Hezbollah's arsenal has made them think twice about pursuing the military option.

On the other hand, any attacks by Hezbollah into northern Israel play neatly into the hands of the Israeli government and their allies in Washington who wish to see Syria dis-arm the party and remove them from Israel's northern border. "I think the Israelis are setting up Hezbollah and Syria," said one analyst. "They are trying to provoke a reaction by Hezbollah against Israel which can then be used to mobilize American support to pressure Syria to disarm Hezbollah."

The assassination of Hezbollah commander Ali Saleh earlier this month was part of the trap set by Israel, according to the analyst.

"The Israelis realize that after six months without attacks along the border, it becomes hard to keep claiming that Hezbollah is a threat. They had to heat up the border," he said.

In the dangerous game of brinkmanship waged by Hezbollah and the Israeli army, neither likes to be the first to back down. Two years ago, Israeli warplanes destroyed a Syrian radar position in the Bekaa in retaliation for a Hezbollah attack in the Shebaa Farms a day earlier.

Hezbollah responded within the hour, shelling several outposts in the Shebaa Farms. Israel backed down first, claiming it had no wish to escalate the situation.

This time, it was the other way around. Hezbollah refrained from firing AA rounds across the border in retaliation for Israel's muscle-flexing aerial display in the night sky above Beirut early Monday morning.

Yet although Israel had "the last word," it nonetheless staged two days later the most provocative series of overflights in weeks.

The U.N. issued a strong condemnation of the overflights which, in Lebanese eyes, went some way to counter-balance U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan's criticism of Hezbollah's fatal burst of AA fire on Sunday.

Hezbollah may grudgingly accept that discretion is the better part of valor and ensure its AA shells explode above Lebanese territory for the time being. There is much-needed diplomatic capital to be gained by Lebanon and Syria if it becomes clear that the persistent violator is the Israeli air force rather than Hezbollah's AA units.

But Hezbollah's oft-stated role as defender of Lebanese sovereignty will be undermined if Israel persists with its overflights and the resistance fails to resort to a few barrages of cross-border AA fire.

As for the diplomatic option, Wednesday's overflights appear to have quashed hopes that an agreement to end aerial violations of the U.N.-delineated Blue Line might be announced by the end of the week.

"There is a lot of diplomatic activity, but I don't think we can speak of a breakthrough at the moment," said one diplomat.

According to diplomatic sources, the United States recently began an attempt to persuade Israel to refrain from overflights for a month.

The idea was to put to the test the Israeli claim that Hezbollah's AA fire is unprovoked aggression unconnected to Israel's "necessary reconnaissance missions" above Lebanon. If there was no cross-border AA fire during the trial month, Israel's claim would have proved unfounded, making it difficult for Israel to justify resuming overflights. It may well be for that very reason that Israel would have no wish to accept the one-month "challenge."

Ironically, however, it looks as though the initiative may end up working in reverse with Hezbollah refraining from cross-border anti-aircraft fire while Israeli jets continue to penetrate Lebanese air space.

penny for your thoughts?